职业农民需求量预测及其实现路径Forecasting the demand of professional farmers and its realization path
唐天元,张相龙,马蕾,赵明正
摘要(Abstract):
【目的】落实国家的各项农业发展支持政策,必须科学定义农民的性质,精确核算不同发展阶段职业农民的数量。【方法】分别按照收入标准、经济社会发展水平和国际经验数据预测职业农民的需求数量。【结果】农民家庭人均可支配收入要达到全国居民收入的平均水平,职业农民的数量必须控制到4 358.55万人,占社会就业人口的比例为5.63%。按照国际经验数据,2019年中国就业人口人均GDP为30 073.68美元(按PPP值),农业就业人口占比应该是11.91%,而实际数据是25.1%,到2035年中国就业人口人均GDP将超过7万元,农业就业人口占比应该降低到4.98%,大约4 000万人。【结论】应逐步提高职业农民的学历、职称等门槛,加强农业经济组织建设,稳固职业农民队伍,全方位实现机械化,强化财政金融支持,实现城乡融合发展。
关键词(KeyWords): 乡村振兴;职业农民;身份农民;农业就业人口;全面机械化
基金项目(Foundation): 教育部人文社会科学研究规划项目(20YJA790027);; 河南省软科学项目(222400410269)
作者(Author): 唐天元,张相龙,马蕾,赵明正
DOI: 10.16445/j.cnki.1000-2340.20230207.001
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